[EVENT] President for a Day!

Discussion in 'Empire Events' started by Krysyy, Feb 15, 2019.

  1. Congrats to both.
    Windylava and luckycordel like this.
  2. Wait, what made you think that? xD
  3. the odds of having a tie with that many votes is 2.65 percent
    luckycordel likes this.
  4. Who would've known the results would end up as a tie. Very surprising to say the least. I'm very proud and happy for both candidates
    jaqque and luckycordel like this.
  5. Wow, a Tie! Whats the Odds of That! jk ^
    Congarts to ya both, Windylava & jewel_King
    jaqque likes this.
  6. That doesn't explain much. Could you at least share the equation? I haven't had probability theory (yet) at university, and when I tried calculating it myself I got 25%, which intuitively doesn't seem right (if it is, then it wasn't so unlikely after all!).
    Anyway, chance doesn't work like that here, as the distribution of votes wasn't random.
  7. Well than my equation isnt valid i rechecked my formula and it's used to find the probability of a RANDOM event
  8. I was going to count up the possibilities - run through all the numbers, and count the bits in each and do a "number of bits even / number of all" and number of all is 2^ 156, or 91,343,852,333,181,432,387,730,302,044,767,688,728,495,783,936 or a bit above 91 Quattuordecillion (91 Septilliard).

    I decide I didn't want t count that, after all. I'd be here a while.

    I decided to go another route - let's count up small ones to see if we can find a pattern! I did! Looks like it's A000984 from the OEIS but they don't list the 78th term.

    So working with that, I get:
    6.38%

    Using `bc`:
    define f(n) {
    if (n < 2) return(1)
    return(n * f(n - 1))
    }
    define a(n) { return f(2*n)/(f(n)^2) }
    scale=5
    v=156
    a(v/2)/2^v*100
    6.37700

    Please check my math - I have no llamas in my office.
    Eviltoade and TomvanWijnen like this.
  9. Kinda would be curious to see the vote count, not gonna lie XD :p See that beautifully tied graph <3
    wafflecoffee and jaqque like this.
  10. I fixed your signature, Windy.
    Windylava likes this.
  11. It's a circle perfectly divided down the middle. You'll have to envision it in your head as I'm on the phone travelling and unable to load one in. ;)
    Sazukemono and ThaKloned like this.

  12. here you go
    Krysyy, wafflecoffee and ThaKloned like this.
  13. Congratulations to the presidents! :)

    Interesting, binompdf(156, 0.5, 78) gives 0.06377959..., which is practically equal to that. I'm not sure if binompdf is the right thing though - it's been a bit again since I had this stuff. :p
    jaqque likes this.
  14. Due to the way the scaling worked, yes, that is the answer I got with more precision. I cut it to 3 decimal places (I know - scale said 5 - but I had to add two more because of where I put the x100%). If i let it go longer, it would have produced the exact number you got as it's the same function.

    The highest math I ever took was Calculus. I skipped discrete algebra and statistics as I liked my sanity far, far more.
    TomvanWijnen likes this.
  15. lol thanks
    NuclearBobomb and wafflecoffee like this.
  16. Wait does that mean myself and Alice are Co- Vice Presidents?!?!?!?!

    THE IRONY!
  17. actually, my Vice was MoreMoople :rolleyes:
    Gaming_Comander and Sefl like this.
  18. psht wont even make your campaign manager your VP, this is heresy!
    NuclearBobomb likes this.
  19. Wot in tarnation
    Technically if we went by old school United States laws, Rhino and I would be vice president :p
    607 likes this.
  20. Welp sorry Jacob I don't follow the American ways. One is my way =P all hail VP's EquableHook and MoreMoople. For we are the true presidents and will have our leaders impeached!

    Uh I mean love you Windylava please don't kick me out of SSRC