A Note on #Brexit

Discussion in 'Miscellaneous' started by synth_apparition, Jun 4, 2016.

  1. When will we know?
    Normally I hardly care about political issues at all, but I find this pretty important.
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  2. We can vote until 10PM today, and I'm pretty sure results will come out tomorrow :)
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  3. Are exit polls allowed?

    Just heard that they are, but it is not allowed to publish results before polling places close.

    So big banks and corporations are paying for their own exit polls to perhaps get some outlook before everyone else.
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  4. Results should come in around 10AM GMT tomorrow with the one with the most votes counted until that point being 'probably the winner', and the actual winner will be declared at 4PM GMT I think.
    I've been reading that they're not...

    Chance of a Brexit has gone way down to 25% today, according to Bloomberg. They've put Remain at 46% and Leave at 44%, with remain's sudden voter gain being from those who were previously undecided. Whether that's accurate or not, the future of this country seems to be resting on 1-2% and it's going to be tight, and will probably drive a division down the country for years to come.
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  5. Here's actual times and stuff :p

    We'll get the Isle of Scilly and Gibraltar's results first at 12AM - both of which are pretty much guaranteed to do vote to stay in the EU due to Scilly's small population and Gibraltar being in mainland Europe. Sunderland and Newcastle will have their results in at 12:30 - Sunderland is guaranteed to have a majority for leave, whereas Newcastle will probably have a remain vote. London's vote will come in at 12:45AM, and it's the most pro-EU place in the entire country, so they'll have a remain vote.

    At 1AM we get Oldham's result, who are practically under UKIP's control at the moment, so there'll be a leave majority there. The results will begin to come in fast. Leave will most likely have the majority in Basildon and Hartlepool. Stockport will likely swing to remain. We get the result from Merthyr Tydfil, who will most likely set the tone for the rest of Wales alongside Caerphilly and Newport - but Wales has no clear consensus on which way it's going to swing. The Western Isles will have their votes counted too, but since they're Scottish it's pretty much confirmed at this point to be for remain.

    Wandsworth and Westminster will be up at 2AM, most likely with a remain vote.

    The next hour will have results coming in so fast I'm not going to list them here.

    We get our first Northern Irish results at 4AM, who are pro-EU for... obvious reasons if you've been paying attention to the last century of British history or have looked at a map in the last 80 years. Birmingham will also get its result at this time, and unlike many other big British cities, they're likely going to vote leave. Sheffield will likely declare for remain at this time, Wiltshire will also declare at this time but for leave.

    If everything's going to plan at 5AM, my home city of Liverpool will be declaring its vote at this time, and we're leaning more toward remain. Manchester also declares its vote at this time, and they are largely for remain it seems. Glasgow has the biggest remain majority of the places declaring at this time, so 5AM will likely be full of remain votes.

    Cornwall, the last Celtic area to declare its vote, will declare at 6AM. It's apparently 56% pro-Brexit (yet this is absolutely nonsensical - the UK does not give it the appropriate funding it needs, and we only recognised they have their own language and culture 3 years ago, they want to be independent from England, the only reason they're doing so well is because of the EU), if polls are to be relied on - which I am right now, because there's nothing else I can use :p

    At 7AM, the last places will declare their vote, if stuff is still going swimmingly and nobody's decided to recount because of errors. They have a very small amount of voters, so it's unlikely they'll make a difference to the result unless it's astoundingly neck and neck.

    I'm done now.
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  6. Lol the conspiracy theories have already started. Leave are urging Brexit voters to use a pen because the pencil provided 'enables them to rub out leave votes'. MI5 have much better things to do than to break into ballots with a crate of erasers in tow.
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  7. This is off topic but... if MI6 is the "across the pond" CIA, who is MI5? Yup, its always up to Stew to completely deviate from the topic.
  8. Basically British NSA.
  9. MI6 does foreign affairs and MI5 does UK stuff
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  10. Remain currently has a lead of 19,000. Leave has 823 votes.

    According to the exit poll, leave has been hammered by remain. 52% for remain, 48% for leave. Nigel Farage, leader of the UK Independence Party, who has been campaigning for a British exit for years now, has admitted defeat. It looks like we're staying in, but I'm watching the live results all night (probably) just in case.
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  11. I am very much in the remain camp.

    I live in Cornwall (furthest south west county in the UK) which has been funded heavily by the EU.

    The EU Has helped fund a university campus joint ran by two universities. So students like me can stay local (The uni is rated in the top 10 in the country.)

    The EU also funded projects such as the Eden Project (For those of you that don't know what that is, it is a group of bio domes which sustain tropical plant life and other exotic species.) (You know that weird dome thing in the James bond film Die Another Day? Well that's it!)

    There are many other projects etc that have been funded/ created by the EU here.

    I Found the BBC's report on the matter down here rather amusing they explained the points I made above and then said that many still wanted to leave. They continued to go to A town called Penzance (yes this is the same Penzance ans Pirates Of Penzance) and interview someone who evidently had no knowledge on the matter claiming they wanted to leave "to retake their independence and get their country back" That was the end of the report.

    I am not saying there aren't arguments for Brexit. One point could be made that the European Commission unlike MEPs are not elected by the public which could be suggested as not being democratic.

    I still however believe that we are better off in the EU.

    *Annd Breathe*
  12. I wouldn't use the term: hammered when it is 52% vs 48%. Using your numbers I come up with almost 96% Remain and about 4% Leave though, which does qualify as a hammering in my book.
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  13. Leave: 161, 744 votes
    Remain: 158,537 votes

    5/382 counties have declared.
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  14. So when exactly do the numbers stop coming in? I honestly feel it would be a screw up forr you guys to leave so the fact that leave is winning isnt good.
  15. Numbers stop coming in around 6AM.

    Leave is winning at the moment because about 3 of those 5 who have declared their vote are largely eurosceptic counties, and always have been.
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  16. Remain is getting destroyed at the moment.

    EDIT 01:42AM: Remain is now gaining ground, we now have a 48% share of the votes declared as opposed to the previous 44%.

    Basildon and Hartlepool have voted to leave, as I said they would earlier. Remain was destroyed in Stockton and Merthyr voted to leave by a fairly narrow margin, which I said likely wouldn't be the case - we may have lost Wales. First Scottish results are in, leave was destroyed in both, it will likely be the same for the rest of Scotland.
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  17. Can confirm, Wales is lost. We have more Welsh results and it appears remain has no ground there.

    London has voted to remain, as well as a third Scottish county, with a huge remain margins. Like, 50% more than leave in both counties.

    Remain is back down to 45%, Leave is back up to 54%.

    EDIT 1: Northern Ireland is now proven to be a remain stronghold. Unsurprising, really. England is a leave stronghold - also unsurprising. In fact, the only areas that have surprised me tonight are Wales and Newcastle.

    EDIT 2: Great, my results source has crashed due to traffic.

    EDIT 3: Remain is now in the lead with 50% of the vote. Leave has 49.2%.

    EDIT 4: I apologise for calling districts counties. I'm tired and didn't realise I was doing it lol. It's nearly 3AM and remain has a 50.3% majority.
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  18. Remain currently at 48.5%.

    Scotland, London and Northern Ireland have large remain votes. If we leave, I think the UK will get another three referendums before long... :/

    Leave are currently the most likely winning result for the UK (due to England being eurosceptic, Wales 50/50, Scotland and Northern Ireland being pro-EU but having less people there), and the pound is barrelling straight towards its largest slump in history. I think giving this referendum to the public was a little bit of a mistake, since most of the leave voters are voting as an 'F You' to businesses and banks who need the EU to work but are uneducated on everything. That's what my parents and their friends did. What they don't realise is that this is a stupid decision and it's already looking like it's going to make their lives harder.

    EDIT 1: Nigel Farage has renounced his earlier claims that his leave camp would lose. Labour, the biggest party supporting remain, has apparently internally accepted defeat and are now working on plans to force David Cameron into resignation and a general election to be held four years early in the event of a Brexit.

    Also to the people who didn't show up to vote because of the weather, I want to shout some very inappropriate words at you. Unless you lived in one of the places that flooded and had to close their polling stations down - in which case this is one of the reasons we should hold another referendum because this one is kind of botched.

    EDIT 2: Farage has just stated 'it's been a victory without a single bullet being fired'. Poor choice of words since Jo Cox was SHOT MULTIPLE TIMES AND KILLED just a week ago due to her being pro-EU. What an utter pillock.
  19. Ouch!

    I was afraid that many people would misunderstand (?) this and use the Brexit poll as protest - and "show the politicians and big guys who is the boss."

    I don't know if this was a topic in the campaign, but besides important immediate political and economical consequences, I think that the most important consequences are just in how this affects the mindset, culture, mentality, potential for optimism (or pessimism). Not only in the UK, but in whole Europe.

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  20. Cameron resigned as PM. UK is gonna have some real problems.
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