Your opinions on inflation in the Empire?

Discussion in 'Marketplace Discussion' started by CadenMann, Jan 5, 2015.

?

Should inflation in the Empire be stopped?

Poll closed Jan 15, 2015.
Yea, definitely, it is ruining the economy 30 vote(s) 50.0%
No, inflation is a good thing, it keeps the economy alive 30 vote(s) 50.0%
  1. I've only been around for 163 days and I admit to not really paying attention to much but my own work so I can only comment on that, but anyway, from my perspective inflation is partially driven by a lack of price haggling. The poorer players haggle all the time but their effect on the economy is pretty small. The players who have a substantial rupee balance don't feel pressure to pay lower prices (unless they intend to resell, i.e. promos) so anyone can get away with arbitrarily increasing prices of popular items. Related to this point is the store favoritism, where users will consistently buy from stores that are memorable and already successful. These stores lack incentive to have competitive prices so the lesser-known up-and-coming stores use them as a price guide.
    Combine that with the ferocity at which items are cleared out of a shop and the difficulty in restocking without a dedicated stock crew and you have a recipe for rapid unabated inflation. The forces pushing prices up are many and the forces pushing prices back down are few. The options here are increasing material supply (I'm trying and losing this race, though granted I'm making out like a bandit), inventory metering to prevent rich buyers from hoarding, buyers not settling for high prices, and believe it or not, large-scale free-farming. Sugar cane should be much more expensive than it is, but it is widely available, easy to obtain, free farms are everywhere, and nobody will settle for high-priced cane. It's constantly at rock bottom.

    That said, nearly everything a player needs can be obtained without the use of rupees. Someone needs to ask the question, "who cares if inflation is out of control?" It doesn't matter unless you want to build your entire res out of diamonds or something. I'm sitting on a fat wad of cash and I have no idea what to do with it so I'm considering collecting promos and becoming a part of the problem. Eventually some promos will be so expensive as to be unobtainable to most users. Is that necessarily a problem? For the person who wants it, sure it's a problem, but to the economy as a whole it just means people will be forced to actually play the game.

    What we have is a battle of perspective. The average player wants it all and wants it all easy and for free (I have seen my share of begging). The system can't allow that but has to strive to keep people happy. There is continuous compromise between players giving into the system through occasional loss and failure, and the system giving into the players with substantial freebies and perks.

    Where does the "health" of the economy come into all this? If it's working and there's good traffic the economy is healthy. That's growth, baby. Fluctuation and change is life and life is about the struggle. Take away the struggle and all you have is a simulation.

    It's not like very many people run successful businesses anyway. If you stop inflation it's still going to be the same people collecting the money, the pointless pointless money.

    I do think the system could benefit from introducing some kind of risk/reward gimmick. Currently we have that in the form of custom mobs, but there needs to be something that can reliably draw people out of town, even rich people, with the potential to cause user-initiated scale-able devastation to personal economies.
    Just off the top of my head there could be a casino out in the wilderness somewhere where rather than mining you can try your luck at gambling your rupees away for precious items.
    Allow for rental of extra plots without supporter status. Naturally it would be expensive.
    Allow for purchase of wilderness fast-travel. 1r per block traveled. Would get expensive fast, people would still use it a lot, walking is still an option. Just some ideas here.
    I think offering more "services" would alleviate the inflation "problem" as it would cause more users to be a little more strategic with their skrilla.

    Anyway, I hope this was worth reading. I do tend to ramble incoherently when given the opportunity.
  2. Yep. I understand the reasoning. Maybe that reasoning can be refined to accomplish multiple goals. The Shop is an easily understood way that money could be removed from the system. I don't think this is the thread for debate, but I will just say that this should be explored as a money sink.

    I appreciate your perspective though I believe there is room for debate here. Again, not really the thread for it, and neither of us is the decision maker anyhow. I'll just say that I completely agree that if this was done incorrectly it would severely break game play, but I also think that's true of many features. The key is to not implement it badly.

    I think these are issues that can be resolved. I'd fully expect the staff to balance the influx of diamonds should they consider this approach. In case you were not aware, diamonds today are pretty easy to come by with enraged mob drops and promo chests. If there were too many diamonds introduced then tweaks could be made.

    I think there's an opportunity here even if that's not part of the current plan, but thanks for the description. And sorry, but I do not agree that an alternative currency must be transferable between players. It seems more desirable is that that the currency always flow into the system as a money sink. (Perhaps rupees->tokens->Avalauncher, as an example.)

    I appreciate your clarification that there is no current plan to allow purchasing of tokens with rupees. I can't say whether or not this is correct, but I'll take it on faith that you've checked your source :)
    jkjkjk182 likes this.
  3. Making a enraged mob farm can use some rupees =I
  4. I am really not much of a wildie at all, but I completely agree with this statement.
    bloodra1n likes this.
  5. It's not just about making money... As glorious as that is. Promos are just that they are there to promote the event and bring more people to want to play. However the reason why the market on them is so great is the finite number there are vs the amount of people that are playing. People make good amounts of money by going out and mining and by farming various items. I'm not sure what your complaint is? Is there to many promos? Are you not getting in on the promo money? If you take away the promos then those with large sums of money are going to have little to nothing to aim for... Some literally play just to get those one time items and be collectors. When you have built and used and found most every item there isn't much left other than going to finite promotional items to reinvigorate long time players.

    The server will find balance again when there is a greater demand than supply.
    MissFable and M4nic_M1ner like this.
  6. @ CrimRyuken I like and agree with what you are saying. Not sure I agree with all your solutions or ways to get the money out of the economy but at least you are thinking about it! That is the key, people are thinking about how to better an issue and have come up with great ideas. I just wish people would use all the ideas they have on the forum and put it to Real world. The EMC economy is a basic, basic spin of the world economy and if this many people tried to solve world economic issues like they do in the game, then dang we could really progress and a whole.
  7. As long as people remain competitive where money and rupees are concerned (so they want "more" than their neighbors "because") then you'll never manage to fix this :)

    Because inflation usually starts with people who want to earn more. So a shop starts selling, say, redstone blocks for 5 rupee's more than others. Thinking "who cares, and if I do sell then I make a nice extra buck".

    Its only a matter of time before others will see this and realize that there's more money to be made than what they're making now, so chances are high that they will follow and raise their prices as well.

    Instant inflation.

    Quite frankly I don't think there's too much of a problem at all. The main problem (as I see it of course) is that some people can buy less with their rupee's. Less diamonds for example. But then again...

    I've done it both you know :)

    When I just got my residence I started venturing out in the waste and gathered "common resouces". Man, I was really happy when I finally (by accident) discovered a dark oak tree, chopped it down and got some sapplings too (before the creepers came). Then started using my res as tree farm for a while and I'm sure you can imagine the rest. (I'll spare the stories about the Mesa biome on SMP1) :)

    However, I do think its noteworthy that even though I was relatively low on cash I still managed to get myself enough diamonds to make tools and repair them. I got those through mining and voting.

    After my house was more or less done I went for a basement and better roof. I wanted my "old" storage rebuild and make a few extensions to my house. I realized that through voting and logging on I was also sitting on a nice pile of rupee's (approx. 20k) so then decided that I would buy my resources. Apart from a very generous iron donation from my friend epic_arw my whole basement basically came from several stores.

    That worked quite fine as well.

    So as long as this doesn't heavily affect gameplay (and personally I'd focus more on new or lower "ranked" players than veterans) then I don't really see any issues.
  8. I have one to! Lol
    I do have Some promos and... Its all worth more just couse the most people who are collecting alredey have one, That fir the people who are new it is harder to get one, so the price Will rise.
    And, we all get 100(+) every day Like Zimbabwe were they make 10,000,000trillion dollars evry day...
  9. I have a shop and I import from other servers as well as collect my own goods to sell. I do go to all the servers and I buy from other shops. I also am trying to get to a point to buy and sell goods so people wanting to earn rupees but not manage a shop can sell said items. I also work in sales so I know Wholesale and how markups work. So I try and work in that method. Is their some way to get a running list of AVG prices throughout the empire just as a general guide? Many items I sell I stay inline with my fellow shop owners in my server just to keep a fair market. I also usher business to others who may carry items I don't have in stock.
  10. LOL No sir. I have made BIG on the promos money. So big that the system has proven to be flawed with how easy it is to make money off of them. In 2014 Thanksgiving alone in 2 weeks; I estimate at current value that I collected well over 4.5m worth of promotional. I don't think each season is meant to be abused this way. I only did it to prove that there needs to be major adjustments in the way we distribute seasonal event items to users. Im just saying the incentive to invest in promos is MUCH greater than going to harvest materials from the waste. I've been here before Promos were even in EMC and I can tell you the economy was great and active in the sense of fair materials being harvested daily. If it were up to me, I'd stop promotional events and just give out a /claim rupees like how it was done before promos existed. If you read my post more clearly you'd see the issue rather than defend your way of life by ignoring everything I've said.
  11. Personally I've had to lower prices quite a lot from what I initially set them as. I didn't so much care about my competition as I cared about all the people leaving empty handed because they knew of better deals. The only reason I ever raise them is if I have trouble keeping something in stock. I would rather have a slow-moving and slightly expensive inventory than to be constantly cleared out and spending 90% of my time grinding and farming. Finding a comfortable equilibrium is a hell of a tall order when I have to price-match my closest competitors who are price-matching me in return.

    Like I keep saying to people, if my prices are high it's because I don't actually want you to buy the thing. :p
    It's not really about obtaining maximum return, but achieving automation with minimal work.

    I don't doubt though that some out there live to extract as much as they can. They've defined what winning is to them and will see their plan through, damn the consequences.

    I've said enough. My business model is supposed to be secret. :cool:
  12. I think you both have valid points.

    Promos are not bringing new rupees into the system, but only facilitate transfer between players.
    It is a speculation, that players who buy promos otherwise wouldn't use their rupees in some other way (player shops). It may be true for some of them, but I have no idea how many would just let their rupees rot.

    This high income for many players did unleash the latent inflation that was already there in form of rupee hoarding.

    Counting on that, that many players will hoard rupees and remove them from the system that way is in my opinion disturbing and dangerous because of this potential for high inflation and instability on one side, and on the other because it means those people lose value and probably lose interest in the game along with that.
  13. http://www.azoundria.com/emc/market/
    Here is a really well set-up database to find/buy/sell goods and see averages around EMC as a whole. Credit to azoundria for his website.
    ZBSDKryten likes this.
  14. I think this is only true for those hoarding rupees and not knowing what to do with them.
    Also, I think this is for a greater part effect of excessive rupee influx.

    I run a quite well known shop and I have to care about competitive prices all the time.
    Competitive buy-prices!
    As a buy/sell shop owner you have to increase prices when no one wants to sell to you because of the low buy-price. And my margins are quite low. Few rupees per stack for high volume items.

    How does that work?

    All of this can not help if we're constantly pumping currency into the system. Anything and all we can do is nothing compared to the power of money printing.

    I have an idea how to stop the inflation and create convenient fair trade (not barter!), that would also work for a group of people willing to participate.
    Let's see if there is enough momentum in the EMC community to initiate changes.

    Me :) - because:
    - High inflation makes that the currency can not hold value long enough. This impacts the functionality of the currency and therefore the trade and economy - and the community - in a negative way.
    - It forces the people to think about and adjust to the the inflation instead to demand and supply.
    - It forces shop owners like me to constantly change prices which is a lot of tedious work
    Stability of the currency is important for the economy.

    On the other side, too low inflation would encourage rupee hoarding, so I guess optimum is a steady low inflation.

    Isn't that opposed to having a good and fair game?
    Is that average player the measure that one of the best MC servers needs to take as the orientation?

    Very true :)

    If we just cut the money supply through "free rupees" and excessive bonuses :)
    And introduce attractive services and fees (I like the idea of lot fee).
  15. I remember when I had like 250k and I was considered incredibly rich lol

    good times...

    anyway, inflation means rupees are less valuable.
  16. The variety of things that can be done with rupees is so relatively small the loss of value isn't too meaningful in light of the fact they are unnecessary to get what one wants.

    Again I point to the perspective battle. Those who want to "win" the rupee wars will complain about their relative value and those whom see it as little more than a curious convenience will be largely unperturbed by the inflation. Even the poll reflects this, it's nearly a 50/50 split.

    I'll grant you the rupee influx, with the caveat that we don't really know how many rupees are being infused versus how many are reclaimed (unless I'm blind to something obvious).
    As far as not knowing what to do with rupees, I think I fall into this camp, but not for lack of imagination. I simply have little desire to spend thus I hoard by default.

    I sympathize with you there, but this is merely a matter of how much or how little profit (ergo work) you are willing to settle for.

    I do it manually. In basic terms I don't allow the possibility for one person to acquire a majority of any stock unless I can easily replace it.

    The value of the currency is meaningless when everything can still be provided to any player. When Minecrafters start lining up at 6am just to buy a loaf of bread I think then we will have a real problem on our hands. ;)

    Not necessarily, to either question. Considering the lack of real risk a player can become a successful beggar and be considered both good and fair, though obviously the economy can only sustain so many of these. The end result is many people try begging and fail, so the curve moves with the age of the player on to the next modus operandi until they find one that works.

    That might work to an extent but a new problem of fairness is introduced. Once new players learn they have been robbed of opportunities established players have they will be outraged and make demands. Working against or amongst an established elite is difficult as it is, so the solution must be one that promotes social equality rather than preventing it.
    M4nic_M1ner likes this.
  17. Just to trade.
    Imagine someone wants to sell a contraption and then buy stuff in several different shops.
    Or someone wants to sell a beacon and buy ton of flowers? How would they find a person that just now wants a beacon and just now wants to sell a DC of flowers?
    How to do that without currency?

    It's not meant to be much more than to trade.
    My point is that the ability to trade in a convenient way is really a huge benefit.

    Someone wants to save for something, perhaps for a bigger project.
    Someone runs a buy/sell shop and has to keep high balance so that suppliers can sell any time.
    Someone wants to keep a certain balance to be able to buy when there is an opportunity.
    Someone wants to make a deal, settle a price for a job that will take few weeks to complete.
    Etc.
    They can, but with high inflation it is quite expensive and quite uncertain.

    What do you mean by rupee wars?

    It's just not practical that the value changes so fast. Just with the normal, plain trading, nothing special. It's tedious, it's a burden.

    I have the impression that the vast majority very well enjoys this convenient way of trading, that working economy is one of important traits of EMC. I know there are "wildies" who can not use chest shops (which is really a pity), but I guess more than 80% of members do participate in the trade / economy, most of them quite a bit.

    As i wrote somewhere above, the poll is unfortunate, because the inflation is just a natural healing process. If it is too high it does show that most probably something not desirable is happening, but for itself it has good sides (restoring the balance) and bad sides (as I wrote above).
    The question should be "if the rupee influx is ruining economy and should be stopped or not."
    It is like asking if it is bad to have a fever - where fever is a natural reaction to help you heal.

    It is not too hard to estimate that, but it is simpler to ask Aikar to run few DB queries.

    It's a natural thing to try to optimize. Even if the goal is to just donate the stuff or earnings in the end it is still not natural to waste.

    Yeah, I understand - I do the same.

    Except the ability to trade in a convenient way.

    If the inflation gets so bad that rupees become practically defunct, then we have a real problem :) ...

    True.
    IMO, the buying of rupees for out-of-game money is quite the opposite of in-game social equality and fair play.
    CrimRyuken likes this.
  18. It sounds like you're offering a hypothetical worst-case scenario where rupees value has fallen so much it's as if it doesn't exist? I submit to you that this is impossible.
    If they attempt these trades they would be simply be forced to do with different numbers than in the current scenario, which will be adapted by the programming team. This is what I mean by the fluctuation of value being meaningless.

    To be honest I'm not exactly following you.

    EMC is nothing like a real world scenario. The problem with inflation in the real world is generally wages and earnings do not keep pace without intervention from government legislation which is enormously difficult and time consuming, many people often succumbing to poverty in the process. Another issue is with international trade, inflation affects imports and exports. These are two issues EMC does not have to worry about. All someone has to do is raise the voting rewards to keep pace with inflation and nothing will change. This is again what I mean by the value of rupees is meaningless, because even in fluctuation the value can be kept effectively stable rather easily.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTuRPH6cSGs

    That's a given, but I think you are overstating the detriment the effect inflation has had so far. According to what I read yesterday Aikar is quite pleased with the current exchange rates.

    What I think it shows is there is a split decision over whether it is "too high". Just because some are uncomfortable that doesn't mean there is an objective problem. If we can predict certain ruin in the near future, sure then there is a problem, but I don't think that is the case.

    This ability will remain even with inflation, it will merely force a slight adaptation over time.

    Again I will assert this is impossible unless it is intentional. ;)

    I completely agree with you.
    M4nic_M1ner likes this.
  19. Not that, but a scenario where rupee loses value very fast - too fast.
    The absolute value is not important, but the rate of the inflation.

    For me - for reasons described above, and IMO for the whole EMC economy, the inflation itself is already a problem big enough.

    Simply said, my points are:
    - it is bad and quite a problem if the value of rupees is changing too fast and
    - it is bad to excessively "print money", it creates even bigger problems besides the inflation.

    For example, the inflation caused by rupee influx has adverse influence on supply of goods. (Which again further curbs up the inflation.) Among other negative effects on EMC economy.

    It would make the inflation go even faster, wouldn't it?

    How?

    There's no such thing on EMC ... not that I would know of (?)

    I'm not sure if the people really did understand the question this way. (?)

    Emphasis on slight. 100% per year is by any means not slight.

    Is this smiley telling that selling of rupees is intentional? :)
  20. I assure you the selling of rupees has very little impact on inflation. Those who do buy them are a small fraction of the demand. They do not make up any significant enough portion of the economy to alter it.

    It's also not fair to say the economy as a whole is inflating and devalueing rupees based on a select few high demand items (diamonds)

    I just compared many prices compared to a year ago, some are the same, some are less, some are up 10-20%.
    EMC's official stance is that we disagree with the discussion at hand about the economy having mass inflation. The inflation is limited to select few items, and is not affecting the entire economy. We would prefer their be more inflation than their is for other items.

    Based on the rupee log data, there are no signs of mass inflation outside of Diamonds specifically and the promo market.

    Promo items are by design meant to be volatile in price, with their limited edition aspect.

    Diamond prices are rising purely due to supply and demand.

    I wrote a script to query the database, and ran queries on many common items. It checks based on stacks of 64 and averages out the price of every 64 stack sold
    Code:
    Item    now    1 year ago
    diamond 5625.1250      4032.0000
    Item    now    1 year ago
    emerald 694.8571        1350.6724
    Item    now    1 year ago
    Sandstone      118.4350        127.7646
    Item    now    1 year ago
    Stone Brick    59.9079 50.5824
    Item    now    1 year ago
    Pine Log        120.1241        128.3041
    Item    now    1 year ago
    cobblestone    37.1404 27.3331
    Item    now    1 year ago
    Oak Log 119.5509        115.5255
    Item    now    1 year ago
    Glowstone      1398.7097      1102.7027
    Item    now    1 year ago
    Coal    133.0085        125.2115
    Item    now    1 year ago
    Gold Ingot      1260.0000      713.3623
    Item    now    1 year ago
    White Wool      102.5691        90.0691
    Item    now    1 year ago
    Nether Brick    122.7323        106.5660
    Item    now    1 year ago
    Glass  98.5688 84.0895
    Item    now    1 year ago
    Iron Ingot      263.9913        206.1115
    and based on single items sold:
    Code:
    Item    now    1 year ago
    diamond 80.6987 53.5461
    Item    now    1 year ago
    emerald 29.1294 25.4225
    Item    now    1 year ago
    Sandstone      4.3529  NULL
    Item    now    1 year ago
    Stone Brick    5.8382  1.4172
    Item    now    1 year ago
    cobblestone    4.3602  2.0676
    Item    now    1 year ago
    Oak Log 2.8508  4.3267
    Item    now    1 year ago
    Pine Log        5.4049  3.0795
    Item    now    1 year ago
    Glowstone      18.9200 16.8697
    Item    now    1 year ago
    Coal    3.4434  3.7075
    Item    now    1 year ago
    Nether Brick    5.7582  9.2105
    Item    now    1 year ago
    Glass  6.0962  3.8000
    Item    now    1 year ago
    Iron Ingot      4.4226  3.3157
    Item    now    1 year ago
    Gold Ingot      10.5795 10.2930
    Item    now    1 year ago
    White Wool      4.3972  2.0112
    And stacks of 16
    Code:
    Item    now    1 year ago
    Sandstone      28.6823 26.3080
    Item    now    1 year ago
    Stone Brick    20.5067 14.8500
    Item    now    1 year ago
    cobblestone    12.7395 9.8929
    Item    now    1 year ago
    diamond 1208.8889      NULL
    Item    now    1 year ago
    emerald 494.1053        372.8066
    Item    now    1 year ago
    Oak Log 30.5077 24.5208
    Item    now    1 year ago
    Pine Log        28.7297 25.1143
    Item    now    1 year ago
    Glass  23.6698 19.9523
    Item    now    1 year ago
    Glowstone      321.3410        271.2558
    Item    now    1 year ago
    Nether Brick    38.1986 38.3851
    Item    now    1 year ago
    Coal    27.8516 30.0711
    Item    now    1 year ago
    Gold Ingot      204.1157        159.9245
    Item    now    1 year ago
    Iron Ingot      68.2807 38.9930
    Item    now    1 year ago
    White Wool      25.0874 19.1805
    Script used:
    Code:
    select "$1" as "Item",
    (select AVG(amount) from rupee_trans where time between UNIX_TIMESTAMP()-(60*60*24*15) AND UNIX_TIMESTAMP()-(60*60*24*5) and extra_data LIKE "$qty $1 to%") as "now",
    (select AVG(amount) from rupee_trans where time between UNIX_TIMESTAMP()-(60*60*24*365) AND UNIX_TIMESTAMP()-(60*60*24*355) and extra_data LIKE "$qty $1 to%") as "1 year ago"
    Rupee influx into the economy is NOT the cause of the Diamond price rise. The cause is that there is not enough supply, and select few manipulating the market trying to profit. Our new player rate has skyrocketed since a year ago, increasing demand.

    To get control on Diamond prices, the community needs to increase supply to the point that supply can not be controlled by the few. I have attempted to help this by increasing the Diamond payout from voting. We also are about to reset the Wastelands soon.

    Overall, the economy has risen a little (and lowered in some places), which was my intent, but it still has A LOT more it needs to go through.

    There will be no changes to the influx of rupees to the economy. There are no signs of harm to the economy in our current state, no reason to believe harm would come even if the discussion of this thread was correct (MANY people have pointed out why EMC's economy doesn't get harmed by inflation).

    We need to stop trying to use real world economics on a video game, it will never apply. There is no "problem" to be solved here on EMC's side. Supplying the Demand is something you the players are going to have to work more on.

    Us making changes to do that would go against manics statement of "Natural development".
    We will make changes where it makes sense (ie: giving more diamonds for voting), but ultimately the rest lies on the community.

    If the community WANTS to pay 150r per diamond.... then well that will be the price of Diamonds.