Are these casino machines fair/good?

Discussion in 'Community Discussion' started by Kryarias, Apr 7, 2018.

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  1. Are these casino machines fair/good?

    Pay 1 Diamond - Win 500r - 1/8 Odds
    Pay 100r - Win 500r - 1/8 Odds
    Pay 500r - Win 2500r - 1/8 Odds
    Pay 300r - Win 1500r - 1/8 Odds
    Pay 1000r - Win 5000r - 1/8 Odds
    Pay 650r - Win A Max Enchanted Tool - 1/8 Odds
    Pay
    Pay

    Keep in mind, these are starter machines. I will be upgrading them in the future.
    q1zx likes this.
  2. I just couldn't resist it...

    Pay 1 Diamond - Win 500r - 1/8 Odds 1 diamond goes for aprox. 110r thease days. The Ev per gamble is 62.5 wich means you will, on avarege, loose 47.5r
    Pay 100r - Win 500r - 1/8 Odds The Ev per gamble is 62.5 wich means you will, on avarege, loose 37.5r
    Pay 500r - Win 2500r - 1/8 Odds The Ev per gamble is 312.5 wich means you will, on avarege, loose 187.5r
    Pay 300r - Win 1500r - 1/8 Odds The Ev per gamble is 187.5 wich means you will, on avarege, loose 112.5r
    Pay 1000r - Win 5000r - 1/8 Odds The Ev per gamble is 625 wich means you will, on avarege, loose 375r
    Pay 650r - Win A Max Enchanted Tool - 1/8 Odds The amount of r you pay is higher that what you get when you win...

    In mathematical langue you say a play is fair when the Ev=bed, which here, clearly, is not the case. :p

    Basically: Mathematically speaking, thease are terrible beds to do as a player. the chance of the bedder actually winning money when he/she does a few beds is really really low. For ten beds on the second one, you need to win two to play quite: 1-binomcdf (10, 1/8, 2) wich is around 11% (change of you playing quite or winning playing 10 bids) The chance of winning without playing quite is 1-binomcdf (10, 1/8, 3) wich is around 3%.
    I'd personally say the chance of loosing is way too high for the small amount of r you pay when winning. You see: the only way gambeling is interesting if you can easyly win money, wich, I'd not suggest doing if you want to make ruppees. or make the amount you pay out wayyyy higher. Just lower the odds to something like 1/10000 It gives people a change to dream, wich is the main reason a lotery works. You give people a change to deam to win.

    EDIT: Oops, made one little mistakes in the maths... Let's see if you can see where... :p
    EvilTruman and q1zx like this.
  3. Thread closed at request of original poster.
    q1zx likes this.
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