Equinox says, The rupee figures left mean your offer will decrease considerably if you don't have the right case, but you still only have a 25% chance of losing the 1 Million Rupees. No Deal!
Yeah! No deal!!!! Now that the formulas have been adjusted it makes a lot more sense to go for the 1 MILL.
13: 5r 21: 200r 5 shulker boxes left to choose from. This is a very suspenseful game. I am gonna offer... 142,982rDeal or No Deal?If Deal, we will open your Shulker Box and you will receive your rupees. If No Deal, please select 1 Shulker Box to open and remove from the game.
I saw that before you edited it out. How did you come to that conclusion? Anyway: No deal, of course. All in is all in, after all. 20.
Well, in the beginning there were 26 shulker boxes which means each shulker box has around a 3.85% chance of containing the million rupees. Therefore, there is a 96.15% chance the remaining boxes contain the million rupees after you chose one. That chance does not change. As the rounds progress, there is an increased chance that the remaining shulker boxes contain the million rupees whilst your shulker box keeps the same 3.85%. I deleted that comment because I did not want to sway your decision. 20: 25r You are doing good so far. The risk/reward factor is certainly kicking in now. I am gonna offer... 336,326rDeal or No Deal?If Deal, we will open your Shulker Box and you will receive your rupees. If No Deal, please select 1 Shulker Box to open and remove from the game.
Hey, that is true. I didn't think of that, interesting. I've never been too good at probability. Although I did get a 10 on the one test I made on the subject. That does make me think... Edit: my mother disagrees, and gave a very good counterpoint. If all the boxes get opened, and none of them have the million, my box would still have 3.85% chance of containing the one million rupees. And that while it actually must contain the one million.
If it gets down to 2 and the million is still in play, don't choose yours. It's statistically more probable that it's in the other one.
What the heck!? I don't know what school system you're a part of, but either the education system needs an injection of steroids, or you guys just aren't accurately communicating what you really mean. Probably a bit of both. When it comes down to the choice of two cases and one is sure to contain the 1Mill, that's a 50% chance. You have just as much chance of getting the 1Mill as whatever the other choice is. It is NOT statistically more probable that the 1Mill is in the "other" case. It comes down to a decision of what you would regret most. If the Offer is 500k, would you regret gaining practically nothing if you opened the wrong case, or would you regret more losing out on your one chance to score 1 Million Rupees. In real life, the logical, rational choice would be to accept the offer and ensure a Win. If the choice were between the 1Mill and 750k, the risk of opening one case is mitigated by the fact that both figures are so large that opening either one will make you quite satisfied.
Have you heard of the Monty Hall problem? http://www.montyhallproblem.com/ It is similar to this game in a way.
Except that Monty chooses which doors to open, and chooses losing doors. While in this case, I get to choose what to open, and I don't know what contains what. Anyway, no deal. 22.
I don't want to sway your decision making so I will end the conversation for me right now. You are so far yet so close to getting that million rupee prize. Does your case have it, or does one of the remaining cases have it? Only time will tell. 22: 400r I am gonna offer... 393,491rDeal or No Deal?If Deal, we will open your Shulker Box and you will receive your rupees. If No Deal, please select 1 Shulker Box to open and remove from the game.
That's too many rupees for my comfort. And thus... No deal. That highens the chance of me getting less rupees. 5.
