Best Picture: Nomadland - should be an easy win, especially after taking the Globe, Critic's Choice, PGA, and BAFTA win. Only thing I could see upsetting is Trial
Best Director: Chloe Zhao - she's swept Director categories at the Globes, Critic's Choice, DGA, and BAFTAs... she will win without a doubt
Best Actress (Lead): Viola Davis - this is the toughest one of the night. Andra Day won the Globe, Carey Mulligan won the Critic's Choice, Viola Davis won the SAG, and Frances McDormand won the BAFTA (where the other three weren't nominated). Any of them could take the Oscar, but the SAG is normally the most accurate so I'm siding with that
Best Actor (Lead): Chadwick Boseman - he's won every precursor with the exception of the BAFTA, which went to Anthony Hopkins (who's British, so not surprising). A lot of people are saying Hopkins could upset here, but I just can't see that happening
Best Actress (Supp): Yuh-Jung Youn - this used to be the most complex category, but after Yuh-Jung Youn won the SAG and BAFTA it's pretty clear she's taking the Oscar
Best Actor (Supp): Daniel Kaluuya - he's swept all the precursors. Don't bet against him
Best Adapted Screenplay: Nomadland - frontrunners for Best Picture normally do pretty well here, even if they aren't a "screenplay movie" (e.g. 1917 last year). The Father could, and should, win here, but I can't bet against Nomadland
Best Costume Design: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - should be an easy win after the CDG victory
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - if I'm right about Ma Rainey winning in actor, actress, costume, and makeup/hairstyling, it will have won four awards without a Best Picture nomination
Best Film Editing: The Trial of the Chicago 7 - This is another really challenging one. Sound of Metal won editing at the BAFTAs (which shares a large voting body with the Oscars), but Trial won at the Eddies. Normally we look to the Critic's Choice for clarification, but the two tied there. Make your pick, but the Oscars love that flashy editing (i.e. Dunkirk, Bohemian Rhapsody, Ford v Ferrari)
Best Production Design: Mank - with all of its nominations it has to win something, and the Oscars love awarding period pieces with production design. Plus it won the BAFTA
Best Original Score: Soul - precursors tell all with this one
Best Sound: Sound of Metal - if a movie has "Sound" in its title, it never loses the sound categories. Plus precursors
Best Original Song: "Speak Now" (One Night in Miami) - this is another challenging one. Diane Warren has been nominated 12 times for an Oscar and yet to win, which helps the case for her song "Io Si" (The Life Ahead). However, Leslie Odom Jr. is the star power behind "Speak Now." They might want to award Odom Jr. and One Night in Miami, which will otherwise go home empty handed
Best Visual Effects: Tenet - the Oscars love practical effects, as well as subtle effects (e.g. Ex Machina, First Man, 1917). Midnight Sky is certainly the potential upset, but I don't see any scenario where the Oscars choose that over Tenet
Best Animated Feature: Soul - guess what? Pixar always wins. Plus it's winning Score and has a ton of precursor wins
Best Documentary Feature: My Octopus Teacher - precursor wins back it
Best International Film: Another Round - if you're tired of precursor wins, look no further than Thomas Vinterberg's nomination in the Best Director category to back predicting Another Round here
Best Animated Short: If Anything Happens I Love You - widely available through Netflix, plus Laura Dern (Academy Award winner AND Governer of the Academy) executive produced it
Best Documentary Short: A Love Song for Latasha - but watch out for A Concerto is a Conversation, which is produced by Ava DuVenary and about Green Book composer Kris Bowers
Best Live Action Short: Two Distant Strangers - while The Letter Room has the star power of Oscar Isaac, it is not nearly as widely accessible as Two Distant Strangers (which happens to be on Netflix)
The only of the three short categories I'm confident on is Animated Short, otherwise it feels like a two horse race
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